When may road fatalities start to decrease?

Yannis, G; Antoniou, C; Papadimitriou, E; Katsochis, D

dc.contributor.author	Yannis, G	en
dc.contributor.author	Antoniou, C	en
dc.contributor.author	Papadimitriou, E	en
dc.contributor.author	Katsochis, D	en
dc.date.accessioned	2014-03-01T01:37:34Z
dc.date.available	2014-03-01T01:37:34Z
dc.date.issued	2011	en
dc.identifier.issn	0022-4375	en
dc.identifier.uri	https://dspace.lib.ntua.gr/xmlui/handle/123456789/21554
dc.subject	Macroscopic trends	en
dc.subject	Motorization rate	en
dc.subject	Personal risk	en
dc.subject	Road safety	en
dc.subject.classification	Ergonomics	en
dc.subject.classification	Public, Environmental & Occupational Health	en
dc.subject.classification	Social Sciences, Interdisciplinary	en
dc.subject.classification	Transportation	en
dc.subject.other	Break-points	en
dc.subject.other	Comparative analysis	en
dc.subject.other	Developed countries	en
dc.subject.other	EU countries	en
dc.subject.other	Insurance industry	en
dc.subject.other	Macroscopic analysis	en
dc.subject.other	Macroscopic trends	en
dc.subject.other	Model framework	en
dc.subject.other	Motorization rate	en
dc.subject.other	Personal risks	en
dc.subject.other	Piecewise linear	en
dc.subject.other	Research topics	en
dc.subject.other	Road safety	en
dc.subject.other	Road traffic fatalities	en
dc.subject.other	Safety improvement	en
dc.subject.other	Simultaneous estimation	en
dc.subject.other	Slope change	en
dc.subject.other	Socioeconomic indicators	en
dc.subject.other	Temporal evolution	en
dc.subject.other	Vehicle fleets	en
dc.subject.other	Developing countries	en
dc.subject.other	Economics	en
dc.subject.other	Fleet operations	en
dc.subject.other	Fuel economy	en
dc.subject.other	Regression analysis	en
dc.subject.other	Roads and streets	en
dc.subject.other	Accident prevention	en
dc.subject.other	article	en
dc.subject.other	car	en
dc.subject.other	comparative study	en
dc.subject.other	European Union	en
dc.subject.other	human	en
dc.subject.other	international cooperation	en
dc.subject.other	mortality	en
dc.subject.other	public health	en
dc.subject.other	risk assessment	en
dc.subject.other	safety	en
dc.subject.other	socioeconomics	en
dc.subject.other	statistical model	en
dc.subject.other	statistics	en
dc.subject.other	traffic accident	en
dc.subject.other	Accidents, Traffic	en
dc.subject.other	Automobiles	en
dc.subject.other	European Union	en
dc.subject.other	Humans	en
dc.subject.other	Internationality	en
dc.subject.other	Linear Models	en
dc.subject.other	Models, Statistical	en
dc.subject.other	Mortality	en
dc.subject.other	Public Health	en
dc.subject.other	Risk Assessment	en
dc.subject.other	Safety	en
dc.subject.other	Socioeconomic Factors	en
dc.title	When may road fatalities start to decrease?	en
heal.type	journalArticle	en
heal.identifier.primary	10.1016/j.jsr.2010.11.003	en
heal.identifier.secondary	http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jsr.2010.11.003	en
heal.language	English	en
heal.publicationDate	2011	en
heal.abstract	Introduction: The comparative analysis of macroscopic trends in road safety has been a popular research topic. The objective of this research is to propose a simple and, at the same time, reliable multiple regime model framework for international road safety comparisons, allowing for the identification of slope changes of personal risk curves and respective breakpoints. Method: The trends of road traffic fatalities in several EU countries have been examined through the temporal evolution of elementary socioeconomic indicators, namely motorized vehicle fleet and population, at the country level. Results: Piece-wise linear regression models have been fitted, using a methodology that allows the simultaneous estimation of all slopes and breakpoints. The number and location of breakpoints, as well as the slope of the connecting trends, vary among countries, thus indicating different road safety evolution patterns. Impact on industry: Macroscopic analysis of road accident trends may be proved beneficial for the identification of best examples and the implementation of appropriate programmes and measures, which will lead to important benefits for the society and the economy through the reduction of road fatalities and injuries. Best performing countries and the related programmes and measures adopted may concern several safety improvements at the processes of the road, the vehicle and the insurance industries. Conclusions: Lessons from the analysis of the past road safety patterns of developed countries provide some insight into the underlying process that relates motorization levels with personal risk and can prove to be beneficial for predicting the road safety evolution of developing countries that may have not yet reached the same breakpoints. Furthermore, the presented framework may serve as a basis to build more elaborate models, including more reliable exposure indicators (such as vehicle-km driven). (C) 2010 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.	en
heal.publisher	PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD	en
heal.journalName	Journal of Safety Research	en
dc.identifier.doi	10.1016/j.jsr.2010.11.003	en
dc.identifier.isi	ISI:000289021300003	en
dc.identifier.volume	42	en
dc.identifier.issue	1	en
dc.identifier.spage	17	en
dc.identifier.epage	25	en