Exploring tanker market elasticity with respect to oil production using FORESIM

Zacharioudakis, PG; Lyridis, DV

dc.contributor.author	Zacharioudakis, PG	en
dc.contributor.author	Lyridis, DV	en
dc.date.accessioned	2014-03-01T02:51:41Z
dc.date.available	2014-03-01T02:51:41Z
dc.date.issued	2008	en
dc.identifier.uri	https://dspace.lib.ntua.gr/xmlui/handle/123456789/35599
dc.relation.uri	http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-77956334125&partnerID=40&md5=6f5b812d0cda81c4f8b7d6f7add60c6d	en
dc.subject	Artificial neural networks	en
dc.subject	Forecasting	en
dc.subject	Freight rates	en
dc.subject	Modeling	en
dc.subject	Shipping finance/ shipping economics	en
dc.subject	Simulation	en
dc.subject	Tanker market	en
dc.subject.other	Artificial Neural Network	en
dc.subject.other	Freight rates	en
dc.subject.other	Modeling	en
dc.subject.other	Shipping finance/ shipping economics	en
dc.subject.other	Simulation	en
dc.subject.other	Tanker market	en
dc.subject.other	Computer simulation	en
dc.subject.other	Decision making	en
dc.subject.other	Decision support systems	en
dc.subject.other	Neural networks	en
dc.subject.other	Risk analysis	en
dc.subject.other	Risk assessment	en
dc.subject.other	Tankers (ships)	en
dc.subject.other	Commerce	en
dc.title	Exploring tanker market elasticity with respect to oil production using FORESIM	en
heal.type	conferenceItem	en
heal.publicationDate	2008	en
heal.abstract	Future market freight levels have always been a critical question in decision support processes. FORESIM is a simulation technique that models shipping markets (developed recently). In this paper we present the application of this technique in order to obtain useful information regarding future values of the tanker market in numerous states of OPEC oil production levels. This is the first attempt to express future tanker market freight levels in relation to current market fundamentals and future values of demand drivers. We follow a systems analysis seeking for internal and external parameters that affect market levels. Therefore we apply dynamic features in freight estimation taking into account all Tanker market characteristics and potential excitations from non systemic parameters as well as their contribution to freight level formulation and fluctuation. In this way we are able to measure the behavior offuture market as long as twelve months ahead with very encouraging results. The output information is therefore useful in all aspects of risk analysis and decision making in shipping markets.	en
heal.journalName	2nd International Symposium on Ship Operations, Management and Economics 2008	en
dc.identifier.spage	85	en
dc.identifier.epage	94	en