Modeling duration of urban traffic congestion

Stathopoulos, A; Karlaftis, MG

dc.contributor.author	Stathopoulos, A	en
dc.contributor.author	Karlaftis, MG	en
dc.date.accessioned	2014-03-01T01:18:03Z
dc.date.available	2014-03-01T01:18:03Z
dc.date.issued	2002	en
dc.identifier.issn	0733-947X	en
dc.identifier.uri	https://dspace.lib.ntua.gr/xmlui/handle/123456789/14775
dc.subject	Models	en
dc.subject	Traffic congestion	en
dc.subject	Urban areas	en
dc.subject.classification	Engineering, Civil	en
dc.subject.classification	Transportation Science & Technology	en
dc.subject.other	Probability	en
dc.subject.other	Traffic control	en
dc.subject.other	Traffic congestion	en
dc.subject.other	Transportation	en
dc.subject.other	traffic congestion	en
dc.subject.other	urban transport	en
dc.title	Modeling duration of urban traffic congestion	en
heal.type	journalArticle	en
heal.identifier.primary	10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(2002)128:6(587)	en
heal.identifier.secondary	http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(2002)128:6(587)	en
heal.language	English	en
heal.publicationDate	2002	en
heal.abstract	Research on short-term traffic conditions prediction has been largely concerned with parameters such, as flow, occupancy, and speed, ignoring at the same time predictions during congestion, a period when predictions are needed the most. Stemming from the practical need to predict traffic parameters during congested periods, this paper uses the principles of duration modeling to address an important question: given the onset of congestion, how long will it last? As such, the goal of this paper is to propose an approach for estimating the duration of congestion on a given road section and the probability that, given its onset, congestion will end during the following time period. The results indicate that the Loglogistic functional form best describes congestion duration, and that the probability of congestion ending within a specified time period is likely if it has lasted up to approximately 12 min (with a peak at 6 min). Further, it was found that if congestion lasted over 21 min it was probably caused by something external to the traffic system events.	en
heal.publisher	ASCE-AMER SOC CIVIL ENGINEERS	en
heal.journalName	Journal of Transportation Engineering	en
dc.identifier.doi	10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(2002)128:6(587)	en
dc.identifier.isi	ISI:000178824400013	en
dc.identifier.volume	128	en
dc.identifier.issue	6	en
dc.identifier.spage	587	en
dc.identifier.epage	590	en