Statistics of extremes and estimation of extreme rainfall: I. Theoretical investigation

Koutsoyiannis, D

dc.contributor.author	Koutsoyiannis, D	en
dc.date.accessioned	2014-03-01T01:21:27Z
dc.date.available	2014-03-01T01:21:27Z
dc.date.issued	2004	en
dc.identifier.issn	0262-6667	en
dc.identifier.uri	https://dspace.lib.ntua.gr/xmlui/handle/123456789/16247
dc.subject	Design rainfall	en
dc.subject	Extreme rainfall	en
dc.subject	Generalized extreme value distribution	en
dc.subject	Gumbel distribution	en
dc.subject	Hydrological design	en
dc.subject	Hydrological extremes	en
dc.subject	Probable maximum precipitation	en
dc.subject	Risk	en
dc.subject.classification	Water Resources	en
dc.subject.other	Data reduction	en
dc.subject.other	Hydrology	en
dc.subject.other	Risk assessment	en
dc.subject.other	Statistical methods	en
dc.subject.other	Gumbel distribution	en
dc.subject.other	Rain	en
dc.subject.other	extreme event	en
dc.subject.other	hydrological regime	en
dc.subject.other	rainfall	en
dc.subject.other	risk assessment	en
dc.subject.other	statistical analysis	en
dc.title	Statistics of extremes and estimation of extreme rainfall: I. Theoretical investigation	en
heal.type	journalArticle	en
heal.identifier.primary	10.1623/hysj.49.4.575.54430	en
heal.identifier.secondary	http://dx.doi.org/10.1623/hysj.49.4.575.54430	en
heal.language	English	en
heal.publicationDate	2004	en
heal.abstract	The Gumbel distribution has been the prevailing model for quantifying risk associated with extreme rainfall. Several arguments including theoretical reasoning and empirical evidence are supposed to support the appropriateness of the Gumbel distribution. These arguments are examined thoroughly in this work and are put into question. Specifically, theoretical analyses show that the Gumbel distribution is quite unlikely to apply to hydrological extremes and its application may misjudge the risk, as it underestimates seriously the largest extreme rainfall amounts. Besides, it is shown that hydrological records of typical length (some decades) may display a distorted picture of the actual distribution, suggesting that the Gumbel distribution is an appropriate model for rainfall extremes while it is not. In addition, it is shown that the extreme value distribution of type II (EV2) is a more consistent alternative. Based on the theoretical analysis, in the second part of this study an extensive empirical investigation is performed using a collection of 169 of the longest available rainfall records worldwide, each having 100-154 years of data. This verifies the inappropriateness of the Gumbel distribution and the appropriateness of EV2 distribution for rainfall extremes.	en
heal.publisher	IAHS PRESS, INST HYDROLOGY	en
heal.journalName	Hydrological Sciences Journal	en
dc.identifier.doi	10.1623/hysj.49.4.575.54430	en
dc.identifier.isi	ISI:000222737000003	en
dc.identifier.volume	49	en
dc.identifier.issue	4	en
dc.identifier.spage	575	en
dc.identifier.epage	590	en