Diagnostic statistics of daily rainfall variability in an evolving climate

Panagoulia, D; Bardossy, A; Lourmas, G

dc.contributor.author	Panagoulia, D	en
dc.contributor.author	Bardossy, A	en
dc.contributor.author	Lourmas, G	en
dc.date.accessioned	2014-03-01T01:23:59Z
dc.date.available	2014-03-01T01:23:59Z
dc.date.issued	2006	en
dc.identifier.issn	16807340	en
dc.identifier.uri	https://dspace.lib.ntua.gr/xmlui/handle/123456789/17156
dc.subject	Rainfall Variability	en
dc.subject.other	atmospheric circulation	en
dc.subject.other	catchment	en
dc.subject.other	climatology	en
dc.subject.other	general circulation model	en
dc.subject.other	global warming	en
dc.subject.other	precipitation intensity	en
dc.subject.other	rainfall	en
dc.subject.other	stochasticity	en
dc.subject.other	Central Greece	en
dc.subject.other	Eurasia	en
dc.subject.other	Europe	en
dc.subject.other	Greece	en
dc.subject.other	Mesochora	en
dc.subject.other	Southern Europe	en
dc.subject.other	Thessaly	en
dc.subject.other	Trikala	en
dc.title	Diagnostic statistics of daily rainfall variability in an evolving climate	en
heal.type	journalArticle	en
heal.identifier.primary	10.5194/adgeo-7-349-2006	en
heal.identifier.secondary	http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-7-349-2006	en
heal.publicationDate	2006	en
heal.abstract	To investigate the character of daily rainfall variability under present and future climate described via global warming a suite of diagnostic statistics was used. The rainfall was modeled as a stochastic process coupled with atmospheric circulation. In this study we used an automated objective classification of daily patterns based on optimized fuzzy rules. This kind of classification method provided circulation patterns suitable for downscaling of General Circulation Model (GCM)-generated precipitation. The precipitation diagnostics included first and second order moments, wet and dry-day renewal process probabilities and spell lengths as well as low-frequency variability via the standard deviation of monthly totals. These descriptors were applied to nine elevation zones and entire area of the Mesochora mountainous catchment in Central Greece for observed, 1×CO2 and 2×CO2 downscaled precipitation. The statistics' comparison revealed significant differences in the most of the daily diagnostics (e.g. mean wet-day amount, 95th percentile of wet-day amount, dry to wet probability), spell statistics (e.g. mean wet/dry spell length), and low-frequency diagnostic (standard deviation of monthly precipitation total) between warm (2×CO2) and observed scenario in a progressive rate from lower to upper zone. The differences were very greater for the catchment area. In the light of these results, an increase in rainfall occurrence with diminished rainfall amount and a sequence of less consecutive dry days could describe the behaviour of a possible future climate on the examined catchment.	en
heal.journalName	Advances in Geosciences	en
dc.identifier.doi	10.5194/adgeo-7-349-2006	en
dc.identifier.volume	7	en
dc.identifier.spage	349	en
dc.identifier.epage	354	en