Prediction markets: An information aggregation perspective to the forecasting problem

Tziralis, G; Tatsiopoulos, I

dc.contributor.author	Tziralis, G	en
dc.contributor.author	Tatsiopoulos, I	en
dc.date.accessioned	2014-03-01T01:26:56Z
dc.date.available	2014-03-01T01:26:56Z
dc.date.issued	2007	en
dc.identifier.issn	17460573	en
dc.identifier.uri	https://dspace.lib.ntua.gr/xmlui/handle/123456789/18287
dc.subject	Forecasting	en
dc.subject	Information aggregation	en
dc.subject	Prediction markets	en
dc.title	Prediction markets: An information aggregation perspective to the forecasting problem	en
heal.type	journalArticle	en
heal.identifier.primary	10.1504/WREMSD.2007.014044	en
heal.identifier.secondary	http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/WREMSD.2007.014044	en
heal.publicationDate	2007	en
heal.abstract	Lately, traditional forecasting methods have been depicted as inferior to newer ones which are attempting to simulate the human decision making process. However, this goal might even be impossible to achieve. This paper introduces an inverse approach to the forecasting problem. The typical process of attempting to subtractively model the expert's knowledge and cognitive function and then perform the forecast is replaced by the dynamic extraction of pure experts' forecasts and the subsequent summing up of the information. The design and benefits of a business game that serves as an information aggregation tool producing valuable predictors is hereby supported. Copyright © 2007 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.	en
heal.journalName	World Review of Entrepreneurship, Management and Sustainable Development	en
dc.identifier.doi	10.1504/WREMSD.2007.014044	en
dc.identifier.volume	3	en
dc.identifier.issue	3-4	en
dc.identifier.spage	251	en
dc.identifier.epage	259	en