Statistical analysis of hydroclimatic time series: Uncertainty and insights

Koutsoyiannis, D; Montanari, A

dc.contributor.author	Koutsoyiannis, D	en
dc.contributor.author	Montanari, A	en
dc.date.accessioned	2014-03-01T01:27:17Z
dc.date.available	2014-03-01T01:27:17Z
dc.date.issued	2007	en
dc.identifier.issn	0043-1397	en
dc.identifier.uri	https://dspace.lib.ntua.gr/xmlui/handle/123456789/18382
dc.subject	Statistical Analysis	en
dc.subject	Time Series	en
dc.subject.classification	Environmental Sciences	en
dc.subject.classification	Limnology	en
dc.subject.classification	Water Resources	en
dc.subject.other	Climatology	en
dc.subject.other	Parameter estimation	en
dc.subject.other	Thermal effects	en
dc.subject.other	Time series analysis	en
dc.subject.other	Hydroclimatic time series	en
dc.subject.other	Long-term persistence (LTP)	en
dc.subject.other	Hydrology	en
dc.subject.other	Climatology	en
dc.subject.other	Hydrology	en
dc.subject.other	Parameter estimation	en
dc.subject.other	Thermal effects	en
dc.subject.other	Time series analysis	en
dc.subject.other	climate modeling	en
dc.subject.other	hydrological modeling	en
dc.subject.other	time series analysis	en
dc.subject.other	uncertainty analysis	en
dc.title	Statistical analysis of hydroclimatic time series: Uncertainty and insights	en
heal.type	journalArticle	en
heal.identifier.primary	10.1029/2006WR005592	en
heal.identifier.secondary	http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006WR005592	en
heal.identifier.secondary	W05429	en
heal.language	English	en
heal.publicationDate	2007	en
heal.abstract	Today, hydrologic research and modeling depends largely on climatological inputs, whose physical and statistical behavior are the subject of many debates in the scientific community. A relevant ongoing discussion is focused on long-term persistence (LTP), a natural behavior identified in several studies of instrumental and proxy hydroclimatic time series, which, nevertheless, is neglected in some climatological studies. LTP may reflect a long-term variability of several factors and thus can support a more complete physical understanding and uncertainty characterization of climate. The implications of LTP in hydroclimatic research, especially in statistical questions and problems, may be substantial but appear to be not fully understood or recognized. To offer insights on these implications, we demonstrate by using analytical methods that the characteristics of temperature series, which appear to be compatible with the LTP hypothesis, imply a dramatic increase of uncertainty in statistical estimation and reduction of significance in statistical testing, in comparison with classical statistics. Therefore we maintain that statistical analysis in hydroclimatic research should be revisited in order not to derive misleading results and simultaneously that merely statistical arguments do not suffice to verify or falsify the LTP (or another) climatic hypothesis. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.	en
heal.publisher	AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION	en
heal.journalName	Water Resources Research	en
dc.identifier.doi	10.1029/2006WR005592	en
dc.identifier.isi	ISI:000246850800005	en
dc.identifier.volume	43	en
dc.identifier.issue	5	en