On the credibility of climate predictions

Koutsoyiannis, D; Efstratiadis, A; Mamassis, N; Christofides, A

dc.contributor.author	Koutsoyiannis, D	en
dc.contributor.author	Efstratiadis, A	en
dc.contributor.author	Mamassis, N	en
dc.contributor.author	Christofides, A	en
dc.date.accessioned	2014-03-01T01:28:55Z
dc.date.available	2014-03-01T01:28:55Z
dc.date.issued	2008	en
dc.identifier.issn	0262-6667	en
dc.identifier.uri	https://dspace.lib.ntua.gr/xmlui/handle/123456789/19032
dc.subject	Climate change	en
dc.subject	Climate models	en
dc.subject	Falsifiability	en
dc.subject	General circulation models	en
dc.subject	Hurst-Kolmogorov climate	en
dc.subject.classification	Water Resources	en
dc.subject.other	Earth sciences	en
dc.subject.other	Water	en
dc.subject.other	Climate change	en
dc.subject.other	Climate modelling	en
dc.subject.other	Climate models	en
dc.subject.other	Climate predictions	en
dc.subject.other	Falsifiability	en
dc.subject.other	Future climate	en
dc.subject.other	General circulation models	en
dc.subject.other	Hurst-Kolmogorov climate	en
dc.subject.other	Local modeling	en
dc.subject.other	Spatial scaling	en
dc.subject.other	Forecasting	en
dc.subject.other	air temperature	en
dc.subject.other	climate change	en
dc.subject.other	climate modeling	en
dc.subject.other	climate prediction	en
dc.subject.other	general circulation model	en
dc.subject.other	precipitation (climatology)	en
dc.subject.other	spatial analysis	en
dc.title	On the credibility of climate predictions	en
heal.type	journalArticle	en
heal.identifier.primary	10.1623/hysj.53.4.671	en
heal.identifier.secondary	http://dx.doi.org/10.1623/hysj.53.4.671	en
heal.language	English	en
heal.publicationDate	2008	en
heal.abstract	Geographically distributed predictions of future climate, obtained through climate models, are widely used in hydrology and many other disciplines, typically without assessing their reliability. Here we compare the output of various models to temperature and precipitation observations from eight stations with long (over 100 years) records from around the globe. The results show that models perform poorly, even at a climatic (30-year) scale. Thus local model projections cannot be credible, whereas a common argument that models can perform better at larger spatial scales is unsupported. Copyright © 2008 IAHS Press.	en
heal.publisher	IAHS PRESS, INST HYDROLOGY	en
heal.journalName	Hydrological Sciences Journal	en
dc.identifier.doi	10.1623/hysj.53.4.671	en
dc.identifier.isi	ISI:000259294700001	en
dc.identifier.volume	53	en
dc.identifier.issue	4	en
dc.identifier.spage	671	en
dc.identifier.epage	684	en