Impact of Wind Power Forecasting Error Bias on the Economic Operation of Autonomous Power Systems

Tsikalakis, AG; Hatziargyriou, ND; Katsigiannis, YA; Georgilakis, PS

dc.contributor.author	Tsikalakis, AG	en
dc.contributor.author	Hatziargyriou, ND	en
dc.contributor.author	Katsigiannis, YA	en
dc.contributor.author	Georgilakis, PS	en
dc.date.accessioned	2014-03-01T01:30:52Z
dc.date.available	2014-03-01T01:30:52Z
dc.date.issued	2009	en
dc.identifier.issn	1095-4244	en
dc.identifier.uri	https://dspace.lib.ntua.gr/xmlui/handle/123456789/19663
dc.subject	autonomous power systems	en
dc.subject	economic operation	en
dc.subject	Normal distribution	en
dc.subject	probabilistic analysis	en
dc.subject	spinning reserve	en
dc.subject	wind power forecasting	en
dc.subject.classification	Energy & Fuels	en
dc.subject.classification	Engineering, Mechanical	en
dc.subject.other	PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS	en
dc.subject.other	QUANTILE REGRESSION	en
dc.subject.other	PREDICTION	en
dc.title	Impact of Wind Power Forecasting Error Bias on the Economic Operation of Autonomous Power Systems	en
heal.type	journalArticle	en
heal.identifier.primary	10.1002/we.294	en
heal.identifier.secondary	http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/we.294	en
heal.language	English	en
heal.publicationDate	2009	en
heal.abstract	Many efforts have been presented in the literature for wind power forecasting in power systems and few of them have been used for autonomous power systems. In addition, some recent studies have evaluated the impact on the operation of power systems and energy markets that the improvement of wind power forecasting can have. In this paper, the value of the information provided to the operators of autonomous power systems about forecasting errors is studied. This information may vary significantly, e.g. it can be only the normalized mean absolute error of the forecast, or a probability density function of the errors for various levels of forecasted wind power, which can be provided either during the evaluation phase of the wind power forecasting tool or by online uncertainty estimators. This paper studies the impact of the level of detail provided about wind power forecasting accuracy for various levels of load and wind power production. The proposed analysis, when applied to the autonomous power system of Crete, shows significant changes among the various levels of information provided, not only in the operating cost but also in the wind power curtailment. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.	en
heal.publisher	JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD	en
heal.journalName	WIND ENERGY	en
dc.identifier.doi	10.1002/we.294	en
dc.identifier.isi	ISI:000266522000001	en
dc.identifier.volume	12	en
dc.identifier.issue	4	en
dc.identifier.spage	315	en
dc.identifier.epage	331	en