Autoregressive nonlinear time-series modeling of traffic fatalities in Europe

Yannis, G; Antoniou, C; Papadimitriou, E

dc.contributor.author	Yannis, G	en
dc.contributor.author	Antoniou, C	en
dc.contributor.author	Papadimitriou, E	en
dc.date.accessioned	2014-03-01T02:01:46Z
dc.date.available	2014-03-01T02:01:46Z
dc.date.issued	2011	en
dc.identifier.issn	18670717	en
dc.identifier.uri	https://dspace.lib.ntua.gr/xmlui/handle/123456789/29247
dc.subject	Autoregressive models	en
dc.subject	Non-linear regression	en
dc.subject	Time series analysis	en
dc.subject	Traffic safety	en
dc.subject.other	Auto regressive models	en
dc.subject.other	Auto-regressive	en
dc.subject.other	EU countries	en
dc.subject.other	Fatality rates	en
dc.subject.other	Future trends	en
dc.subject.other	Less developed countries	en
dc.subject.other	Macroscopic analysis	en
dc.subject.other	Non-linear model	en
dc.subject.other	Non-linear regression	en
dc.subject.other	Predictive capabilities	en
dc.subject.other	Road safety	en
dc.subject.other	Series analysis	en
dc.subject.other	Traffic fatalities	en
dc.subject.other	Traffic safety	en
dc.subject.other	Accident prevention	en
dc.subject.other	Motor transportation	en
dc.subject.other	Roads and streets	en
dc.subject.other	Time series	en
dc.subject.other	Time series analysis	en
dc.title	Autoregressive nonlinear time-series modeling of traffic fatalities in Europe	en
heal.type	journalArticle	en
heal.identifier.primary	10.1007/s12544-011-0055-4	en
heal.identifier.secondary	http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12544-011-0055-4	en
heal.publicationDate	2011	en
heal.abstract	Purpose: The objective of this paper is to provide a parsimonious model for linking motorization level with the decreasing fatality rates observed across EU countries during the last three decades. Methods: A macroscopic analysis of road-safety in Europe at the country level is proposed through the application of non-linear models correlating fatalities and vehicles for the period between 1970 and 2002. Given the time series nature of road safety data, these models result in auto-correlated residuals, thus violating at least one of the assumptions of non-linear regression. Autoregressive forms of the considered models that overcome these limitations and provide superior predictive capabilities are also considered. Results: An autoregressive log-transformed model seems to outperform the base autoregressive non-linear model in this respect. The use of these models allowed for the identification of the best and worst performing countries. Conclusions: The proposed models can prove useful for assessing the road safety performance of the examined countries, as well as for obtaining some insight on the current and future trends of less developed countries. © 2011 The Author(s).	en
heal.journalName	European Transport Research Review	en
dc.identifier.doi	10.1007/s12544-011-0055-4	en
dc.identifier.volume	3	en
dc.identifier.issue	3	en
dc.identifier.spage	113	en
dc.identifier.epage	127	en