A scenario-incorporating analysis of the propagation of uncertainty to flash flood simulations

Quintero, F; Sempere-Torres, D; Berenguer, M; Baltas, E

dc.contributor.author	Quintero, F	en
dc.contributor.author	Sempere-Torres, D	en
dc.contributor.author	Berenguer, M	en
dc.contributor.author	Baltas, E	en
dc.date.accessioned	2014-03-01T02:07:26Z
dc.date.available	2014-03-01T02:07:26Z
dc.date.issued	2012	en
dc.identifier.issn	00221694	en
dc.identifier.uri	https://dspace.lib.ntua.gr/xmlui/handle/123456789/29559
dc.subject	Discharge	en
dc.subject	Parameter	en
dc.subject	Radar	en
dc.subject	Rainfall	en
dc.subject	Simulation	en
dc.subject	Uncertainty	en
dc.subject.other	Catalonia	en
dc.subject.other	Drainage area	en
dc.subject.other	Flash flood	en
dc.subject.other	Model parameter estimation	en
dc.subject.other	Model parameters	en
dc.subject.other	Parameter	en
dc.subject.other	Propagation of uncertainties	en
dc.subject.other	Radar rainfall	en
dc.subject.other	Rainfall estimations	en
dc.subject.other	River basins	en
dc.subject.other	Runoff simulation	en
dc.subject.other	Seasonality	en
dc.subject.other	Separate effects	en
dc.subject.other	Simulation	en
dc.subject.other	Uncertainty	en
dc.subject.other	Catchments	en
dc.subject.other	Discharge (fluid mechanics)	en
dc.subject.other	Parameter estimation	en
dc.subject.other	Radar	en
dc.subject.other	Rain	en
dc.subject.other	Rain gages	en
dc.subject.other	Uncertainty analysis	en
dc.subject.other	flash flood	en
dc.subject.other	flow modeling	en
dc.subject.other	parameterization	en
dc.subject.other	radar	en
dc.subject.other	rainfall-runoff modeling	en
dc.subject.other	river discharge	en
dc.subject.other	seasonality	en
dc.subject.other	uncertainty analysis	en
dc.subject.other	Barcelona [Catalonia]	en
dc.subject.other	Besos Basin	en
dc.subject.other	Catalonia	en
dc.subject.other	Spain	en
dc.title	A scenario-incorporating analysis of the propagation of uncertainty to flash flood simulations	en
heal.type	journalArticle	en
heal.identifier.primary	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.06.045	en
heal.identifier.secondary	http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.06.045	en
heal.publicationDate	2012	en
heal.abstract	This study proposes a methodology to analyze the propagation of uncertainty arising from radar rainfall and model parameter estimation to the flow simulations obtained from flash flood modeling. For this purpose an ensemble approach that describes the error from radar rainfall estimation and a novel approach that considers the seasonality and variability of catchment conditions in the estimation of model parameters have been implemented. The methodology analyzes the separate effect of each source of uncertainty and their interaction on runoff simulations. The methodology has been applied in the Besòs river basin, Catalonia (Spain) with a drainage area of 1020km2. The results show that the effect of parameter estimation uncertainty produces a smaller spread in the model realizations than the effect caused by the uncertainty in rainfall estimation. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.	en
heal.journalName	Journal of Hydrology	en
dc.identifier.doi	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.06.045	en
dc.identifier.volume	460-461	en
dc.identifier.spage	90	en
dc.identifier.epage	102	en