Does Information on Weather Affect the Performance of Short-Term Traffic Forecasting Models?

Tsirigotis, L; Vlahogianni, EI; Karlaftis, MG

dc.contributor.author	Tsirigotis, L	en
dc.contributor.author	Vlahogianni, EI	en
dc.contributor.author	Karlaftis, MG	en
dc.date.accessioned	2014-03-01T02:08:41Z
dc.date.available	2014-03-01T02:08:41Z
dc.date.issued	2012	en
dc.identifier.issn	18688659	en
dc.identifier.uri	https://dspace.lib.ntua.gr/xmlui/handle/123456789/29704
dc.subject	Exogenous variables	en
dc.subject	Short-term speed forecasting	en
dc.subject	Time-series analysis	en
dc.subject.other	Bayesian estimations	en
dc.subject.other	Exogenous variables	en
dc.subject.other	Forecasting models	en
dc.subject.other	Prediction performance	en
dc.subject.other	Traffic flow characteristics	en
dc.subject.other	Traffic Forecasting	en
dc.subject.other	Traffic mix	en
dc.subject.other	Traffic speed	en
dc.subject.other	Vector autoregressive moving average model	en
dc.subject.other	Bayesian networks	en
dc.subject.other	Harmonic analysis	en
dc.subject.other	Time series analysis	en
dc.subject.other	Traffic control	en
dc.subject.other	Forecasting	en
dc.title	Does Information on Weather Affect the Performance of Short-Term Traffic Forecasting Models?	en
heal.type	journalArticle	en
heal.identifier.primary	10.1007/s13177-011-0037-x	en
heal.identifier.secondary	http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13177-011-0037-x	en
heal.publicationDate	2012	en
heal.abstract	Although weather, traffic mix and speed variability across lanes are largely considered as significant determinants of traffic flow characteristics on freeways, they have not been incorporated into short-term traffic forecasting models. We evaluate the effects of weather and traffic mix on the predictability of traffic speed using several vector autoregressive moving average models with exogenous variables. Results indicate that including exogenous variables in the forecasting models only marginally improves their prediction performance, while modeling innovations such as Vector and Bayesian estimation improves the models significantly. © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.	en
heal.journalName	International Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems Research	en
dc.identifier.doi	10.1007/s13177-011-0037-x	en
dc.identifier.volume	10	en
dc.identifier.issue	1	en
dc.identifier.spage	1	en
dc.identifier.epage	10	en