Scenario analysis as a foresight tool in agriculture

Giaoutzi, M; Stratigea, A; Van Leeuwen, E; Nijkamp, P

dc.contributor.author	Giaoutzi, M	en
dc.contributor.author	Stratigea, A	en
dc.contributor.author	Van Leeuwen, E	en
dc.contributor.author	Nijkamp, P	en
dc.date.accessioned	2014-03-01T02:12:09Z
dc.date.available	2014-03-01T02:12:09Z
dc.date.issued	2012	en
dc.identifier.issn	17402816	en
dc.identifier.uri	https://dspace.lib.ntua.gr/xmlui/handle/123456789/30020
dc.subject	AG2020	en
dc.subject	Agriculture	en
dc.subject	Backcasting	en
dc.subject	Foresight studies	en
dc.subject	Scenarios	en
dc.title	Scenario analysis as a foresight tool in agriculture	en
heal.type	journalArticle	en
heal.identifier.primary	10.1504/IJFIP.2012.046106	en
heal.identifier.secondary	http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/IJFIP.2012.046106	en
heal.publicationDate	2012	en
heal.abstract	Complexity and uncertainty are key issues in exploring future developments. Moreover, although the future cannot be predicted, it is clear that certain decisions/actions can influence the future in desired directions. In this respect, planners are being challenged to focus on the development of new approaches and tools, capable of dealing with complexity and uncertainty, in order to be able to effectively support policy makers in making more knowledgeable decisions to achieve desirable future outcomes. The focus of the present paper is on the development of such an approach, i.e., a backcasting policy-scenario design approach, used for the study of the future developments in EU agriculture in 2020. In this respect, the paper presents the main stream of methodological approaches for scenario building, i.e., forecasting and backcasting approaches; it elaborates on the steps involved in the backcasting policy-scenario design framework; and it follows these steps by adopting the backcasting policy-scenario design framework in the AG2020 EU project on the future of EU agriculture in 2020. Copyright © 2012 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.	en
heal.journalName	International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy	en
dc.identifier.doi	10.1504/IJFIP.2012.046106	en
dc.identifier.volume	8	en
dc.identifier.issue	2-3	en
dc.identifier.spage	105	en
dc.identifier.epage	128	en