Determining and exploiting the distribution function of wind power forecasting error for the economic operation of autonomous power systems

Tsikalakis, AG; Katsigiannis, YA; Georgilakis, PS; Hatziargyriou, ND

dc.contributor.author	Tsikalakis, AG	en
dc.contributor.author	Katsigiannis, YA	en
dc.contributor.author	Georgilakis, PS	en
dc.contributor.author	Hatziargyriou, ND	en
dc.date.accessioned	2014-03-01T02:44:00Z
dc.date.available	2014-03-01T02:44:00Z
dc.date.issued	2006	en
dc.identifier.uri	https://dspace.lib.ntua.gr/xmlui/handle/123456789/31609
dc.subject	Autonomous power systems	en
dc.subject	Economic operation	en
dc.subject	Normal distribution	en
dc.subject	Spinning reserve	en
dc.subject	Wind power forecasting	en
dc.subject.other	Autonomous power systems	en
dc.subject.other	Economic operation	en
dc.subject.other	Spinning reserves	en
dc.subject.other	Wind power forecasting	en
dc.subject.other	Autonomous agents	en
dc.subject.other	Distribution functions	en
dc.subject.other	Economic analysis	en
dc.subject.other	Error analysis	en
dc.subject.other	Normal distribution	en
dc.subject.other	Wind power	en
dc.subject.other	Electric power distribution	en
dc.title	Determining and exploiting the distribution function of wind power forecasting error for the economic operation of autonomous power systems	en
heal.type	conferenceItem	en
heal.identifier.primary	10.1109/PES.2006.1709413	en
heal.identifier.secondary	http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/PES.2006.1709413	en
heal.identifier.secondary	1709413	en
heal.publicationDate	2006	en
heal.abstract	Many efforts have been presented in the bibliography for wind power forecasting in power systems and few of them have been used for autonomous power systems. The impact of knowing the distribution function of wind power forecasting error in the economic operation of a power system is studied in this paper. The papers proposes that the distribution of the wind power forecasting error of a specific tool can be easily derived if, for that model, an evaluation of its performance is made off-line comparing the forecasted values of the tool with the actual wind power values in the same horizon. The proposed methodology is applied to the autonomous power system of Crete. It is shown that the improvement of the performance of wind power forecasting tool has significant economic impact on the operation of autonomous power systems with increased wind power penetration. The obtained results for various levels of wind power production and load show that using only mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) leads to significant change in the estimation of the wind power to be shed to avoid technical limits violation, especially if the wind power forecasting tool presents underestimation of the actual production. ©2006 IEEE.	en
heal.journalName	2006 IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting, PES	en
dc.identifier.doi	10.1109/PES.2006.1709413	en