Real-time traffic volatility forecasting in urban arterial networks

Tsekeris, T; Stathopoulos, A

dc.contributor.author	Tsekeris, T	en
dc.contributor.author	Stathopoulos, A	en
dc.date.accessioned	2014-03-01T02:44:10Z
dc.date.available	2014-03-01T02:44:10Z
dc.date.issued	2006	en
dc.identifier.issn	0361-1981	en
dc.identifier.uri	https://dspace.lib.ntua.gr/xmlui/handle/123456789/31729
dc.subject	Real-time Traffic	en
dc.subject	Volatility Forecasting	en
dc.subject.classification	Engineering, Civil	en
dc.subject.classification	Transportation	en
dc.subject.classification	Transportation Science & Technology	en
dc.subject.other	Forecasting	en
dc.subject.other	Information retrieval	en
dc.subject.other	Real time systems	en
dc.subject.other	Statistical methods	en
dc.subject.other	Urban planning	en
dc.subject.other	Autoregressive moving average process	en
dc.subject.other	Traffic volatility	en
dc.subject.other	Urban arterial networks	en
dc.subject.other	Street traffic control	en
dc.title	Real-time traffic volatility forecasting in urban arterial networks	en
heal.type	conferenceItem	en
heal.identifier.primary	10.3141/1964-16	en
heal.identifier.secondary	http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/1964-16	en
heal.language	English	en
heal.publicationDate	2006	en
heal.abstract	A methodology is presented for forecasting traffic volatility in urban arterial networks with real-time traffic flow information. This methodology provides a generalization of the standard modeling approach, in which both the mean, modeled by an autoregressive moving average process, and the variance, modeled by an autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic process, are time-varying. The statistical analysis and forecasting performance of the proposed model are investigated with real-time traffic detector data from a real urban arterial network. The results indicate the potential of the proposed model to improve the accuracy of predicted traffic volatility across different lengths of forecasting horizon in comparison with the standard generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic methodology.	en
heal.publisher	NATL ACAD SCI	en
heal.journalName	Transportation Research Record	en
heal.bookName	TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD	en
dc.identifier.doi	10.3141/1964-16	en
dc.identifier.isi	ISI:000245038200016	en
dc.identifier.issue	1964	en
dc.identifier.spage	146	en
dc.identifier.epage	156	en