A dynamic regional forecast of tanker freight rates with the usage of analytical techniques

Lyridis, DV; Zacharioudakis, PG; Pavlidis, T

dc.contributor.author	Lyridis, DV	en
dc.contributor.author	Zacharioudakis, PG	en
dc.contributor.author	Pavlidis, T	en
dc.date.accessioned	2014-03-01T02:49:58Z
dc.date.available	2014-03-01T02:49:58Z
dc.date.issued	2005	en
dc.identifier.uri	https://dspace.lib.ntua.gr/xmlui/handle/123456789/34840
dc.relation.uri	http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-60749091790&partnerID=40&md5=011a4260161c0b18eb758e0a3e059660	en
dc.subject.other	Analytical techniques	en
dc.subject.other	Event driven	en
dc.subject.other	Freight markets	en
dc.subject.other	Freight rates	en
dc.subject.other	Key issues	en
dc.subject.other	Maritime transport	en
dc.subject.other	Parameter-time	en
dc.subject.other	Commerce	en
dc.subject.other	Competition	en
dc.subject.other	Forecasting	en
dc.subject.other	International law	en
dc.subject.other	Natural resources	en
dc.subject.other	Oceanography	en
dc.subject.other	Reaction rates	en
dc.subject.other	Time series	en
dc.subject.other	Time series analysis	en
dc.subject.other	Waterway transportation	en
dc.subject.other	Tankers (ships)	en
dc.title	A dynamic regional forecast of tanker freight rates with the usage of analytical techniques	en
heal.type	conferenceItem	en
heal.publicationDate	2005	en
heal.abstract	In this paper we present a realistic and flexible approach concerning the forecast of tanker freight rates in a pre-determined number of tanker routes. We aim to do this by using certain analytical techniques. In general, tanker freight rates can reflect the global socio-economical and environmental-oriented situation of various aspects of maritime transport market and practices. Moreover, the development of a realistic and event-driven way in order to achieve acceptable forecasts is in position to further analyze and promote the actual role of such parameters (e.g. tanker freight rates etc). By using the term event-driven we refer to possible maritime market (e.g. tanker rates) reaction to a (local) warfare, to an international embargo, to the enforcement of new regulations etc. Thus, the specific tanker routes were selected with regional, volume and cargo type criteria; this means that they can adequately cover some of the important oil maritime flows in a world-wide scale. We aim to accomplish the aforementioned task by implementing a detailed single-parameter time series model analysis and certain supportive explanatory models. In this way, we formulate an operational and practical framework capable to support a possible corresponding effort for decision making in this cognitive area. The key issue of this effort is to structure a logical-realistic approach to model the recorded fluctuations of tanker freight market. The proposed methodology is applied to forecasting the spot and period freight rates of tankers up to 30.000, 130.000, and 250.000 tn dwt, using as input among others the supply, demand and the number of laid up ships (ranging from 10.000 to 39.999 tn dwt). The success of forecasting is satisfactory in most cases. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group.	en
heal.journalName	Proceedings of the 12th International Congress of the International Maritime Association of the Mediterranean, IMAM 2005 - Maritime Transportation and Exploitation of Ocean and Coastal Resources	en
dc.identifier.volume	2	en
dc.identifier.spage	1343	en
dc.identifier.epage	1350	en