The theta model: An essential forecasting tool for supply chain planning

Nikolopoulos, K; Assimakopoulos, V; Bougioukos, N; Litsa, A; Petropoulos, F

dc.contributor.author	Nikolopoulos, K	en
dc.contributor.author	Assimakopoulos, V	en
dc.contributor.author	Bougioukos, N	en
dc.contributor.author	Litsa, A	en
dc.contributor.author	Petropoulos, F	en
dc.date.accessioned	2014-03-01T02:53:30Z
dc.date.available	2014-03-01T02:53:30Z
dc.date.issued	2011	en
dc.identifier.issn	18761100	en
dc.identifier.uri	https://dspace.lib.ntua.gr/xmlui/handle/123456789/36366
dc.subject	Exponential Smoothing	en
dc.subject	M3-Competition	en
dc.subject	Supply Chain forecasting	en
dc.subject	Theta model	en
dc.subject.other	Exponential smoothing	en
dc.subject.other	Forecasting tools	en
dc.subject.other	Simple exponential smoothing	en
dc.subject.other	Supply chain planning	en
dc.subject.other	Time series forecasting	en
dc.subject.other	Automation	en
dc.subject.other	Forecasting	en
dc.subject.other	Robot programming	en
dc.subject.other	Robots	en
dc.subject.other	Supply chain management	en
dc.subject.other	Time series	en
dc.subject.other	Robotics	en
dc.title	The theta model: An essential forecasting tool for supply chain planning	en
heal.type	conferenceItem	en
heal.identifier.primary	10.1007/978-3-642-25646-2_56	en
heal.identifier.secondary	http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-25646-2_56	en
heal.publicationDate	2011	en
heal.abstract	The Theta model created a lot of interest in academic circles due to its surprising performance in the M3-competition, the biggest ever time series forecasting competition. As a result in the subsequent years it became a benchmark in any empirical forecasting exercise and an essential tool for efficient Supply Chain Management ad planning as it provides very accurate point forecasts. The present study focuses on if the Theta model is a special case of Simple Exponential Smoothing with drift (SES-d). The Theta model outperforms SES-d in the Quarterly-M3 and Other-M3 subsets by 0.30% and 0.36%. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.	en
heal.journalName	Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering	en
dc.identifier.doi	10.1007/978-3-642-25646-2_56	en
dc.identifier.volume	123 LNEE	en
dc.identifier.spage	431	en
dc.identifier.epage	437	en