Causality in climate and hydrology

Christofides, A; Koutsoyiannis, D

dc.contributor.author	Christofides, A	en
dc.contributor.author	Koutsoyiannis, D	en
dc.date.accessioned	2014-03-01T02:54:05Z
dc.date.available	2014-03-01T02:54:05Z
dc.date.issued	2011	en
dc.identifier.uri	https://dspace.lib.ntua.gr/xmlui/handle/123456789/36595
dc.title	Causality in climate and hydrology	en
heal.type	conferenceItem	en
heal.publicationDate	2011	en
heal.abstract	We often see statements such as “90% of climate change is caused by X” and debates on whether the dominant cause of climate change is human activity, or the sun, or something else. However, in chaotic systems, it can be difficult to defend the meaning of such assertions, because if the “effect” occurs sufficiently later than the supposed “cause”, the relationship between the two is effectively lost because of the sensitivity of the “effect” to the initial conditions. In fact, although “A causes B” initially seems clear, closer examination of what it actually means reveals problems that have tortured philosophers for centuries. We review the meaning of causation in the context of hydroclimatology as well as its possible reformulation in probabilistic terms.	en