Stochastic investigation of large-scale hydroclimatic correlations over the Mediterranean

Μαρκόνης, Ιωάννης; Markonis, Ioannis

dc.contributor.author	Μαρκόνης, Ιωάννης	el
dc.contributor.author	Markonis, Ioannis	en
dc.date.accessioned	2016-02-17T11:06:58Z
dc.date.available	2016-02-17T11:06:58Z
dc.date.issued	2016-02-17
dc.identifier.uri	https://dspace.lib.ntua.gr/xmlui/handle/123456789/42015
dc.identifier.uri	http://dx.doi.org/10.26240/heal.ntua.2139
dc.rights	Αναφορά Δημιουργού-Μη Εμπορική Χρήση-Όχι Παράγωγα Έργα 3.0 Ελλάδα	*
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/gr/	*
dc.subject	Στοχαστικές ανελίξεις	el
dc.subject	Δυναμική Hurst-Kolmogorov	el
dc.subject	Παλαιοκλιματικές ανακατασκευές	el
dc.subject	Ακραία υδροκλιματικά συμβάντα	el
dc.subject	Συσχετίσεις μακροκλίμακας	el
dc.subject	Stochastic processes	en
dc.subject	Long-term persistence	el
dc.subject	Paleoclimatic reconstructions	el
dc.subject	Extreme hydroclimatic events	el
dc.subject	Climatic teleconnections	el
dc.title	Stochastic investigation of large-scale hydroclimatic correlations over the Mediterranean	en
heal.type	doctoralThesis
heal.secondaryTitle	Στοχαστική διερεύνηση υδροκλιματικών συσχετίσεων μακροκλίμακας στην περιοχή της Μεσογείου	el
heal.classification	Στοχαστική ανάλυση	el
heal.classification	Κλιματολογία	el
heal.classification	Stochastic processes	en
heal.classification	Climatology	el
heal.classificationURI	http://data.seab.gr/concepts/274afd0853d6b30d920f75f79fbc18231b943332
heal.classificationURI	http://data.seab.gr/concepts/3ece24b94e3c8cb78fb1a19c7c7dc378313f788c
heal.classificationURI	http://data.seab.gr/concepts/00b94906743fbc12dfadd9e7cee1d107cae9fdd7
heal.classificationURI	http://data.seab.gr/concepts/3ece24b94e3c8cb78fb1a19c7c7dc378313f788c
heal.language	en
heal.access	free
heal.recordProvider	ntua	el
heal.publicationDate	2015-12
heal.abstract	During the last 20 years the interest in climatic change has grown due to the hypothesis of anthropogenic global warming. Since climate is associated with some major human activities such as water resources management and therefore crop production, serious concerns have been raised regarding the magnitude of change in the global climatic system and its consequences. The estimation of climatic variability came to the spotlight and with it also came the science of Paleoclimatology, which led to ample progress in the presentation of past climates. Earlier in the 20th century, in another scientific field, Hydrology, the probabilistic approach earned significant ground in modeling natural processes. These stochastic methods can be now utilized to paleoclimatic records in order to give us some insight of the natural climatic variability. This doctoral thesis makes a few steps towards this direction. It examines whether the Hurst-Kolmogorov stochastic framework, known also as long-term persistence or long range dependence, can be implemented to hydroclimatic modelling. The analysis covers different temporal and spatial scales, ranging from daily to 109 years in time and from 105 m to the whole planet in space. It also explores the effect of deterministic components, such as the long-term changes in Earth’s orbit and the atmospheric teleconnection patterns, to the hydroclimatic variability. Moving to smaller spatial scales the stochastic framework was used to determine the statistical significance of rainfall variability over Greece, where some earlier alarming studies suggested substantial annual decrease. Finally, the climate of Crete was reconstructed and the links between climate and society were investigated in a Mediterranean island with a long history of hydraulic works. The major conclusion of this study is that the Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour is evident both in temperature and precipitation. Its implications stem from the fact that natural variability is far more enhanced than assumed so far in the majority of climate studies. Thus, there is some strong evidence that the recent global temperature change lies within the limits of natural climatic fluctuations. In the same concept, there is not anything irregular in the decrease of rainfall over Greece. Moreover, it was found that the dependence structure of precipitation is varying with scale, suggesting two rather different behaviours; one for below-decedal and one for larger scales. Finally, it was shown that extreme or changing climate might amplify or hinder societal change, but this influence is minor compared to the dynamics of the internal social self-organisation.	en
heal.advisorName	Κουτσογιάννης, Δημήτριος	el
heal.committeeMemberName	Κουτσογιάννης, Δημήτριος	el
heal.committeeMemberName	Μαμάσης, Νικόλαος	el
heal.committeeMemberName	Κοτρώνη, Βασιλική	el
heal.committeeMemberName	Μπαλτάς, Ευάγγελος	el
heal.committeeMemberName	Νάστος, Παναγιώτης	el
heal.committeeMemberName	Λαγγούσης, Ανδρέας	el
heal.committeeMemberName	Οικονόμου, Πολυχρόνης	el
heal.academicPublisher	Εθνικό Μετσόβιο Πολυτεχνείο. Σχολή Πολιτικών Μηχανικών. Τομέας Υδατικών Πόρων και Περιβαλλοντικής Μηχανικής	el
heal.academicPublisherID	ntua
heal.numberOfPages	222 σ.
heal.fullTextAvailability	true