heal.abstract |
Public transit modeling is probably one of the most efficient ways of evaluating “in vitro” the
effects of the proposed investments in transportation projects, which are capital intensive,
slow in their execution and involve a vast range of stakeholders with often conflicting needs.
During my internship within Île-de-France Mobilités, the Paris‟ public transport authority, I
had the opportunity to work with Antonin 3, one of the most advanced modeling solutions.
The document follows the chronological order of my three main missions. It starts with a
diagnostic of public transit gaps: using a rigorous mathematical approach which combines an
accessibility analysis from an employment point of view, and a Principal Component
Analysis which succeeds in providing an objective socioeconomic assessment of the different
sectors inside Île-de-France, the methodology proposes an intuitive list of zones facing
isolation issues in 2035. This first mission is followed by a sensitivity analysis of Antonin 3: a
series of elasticities is calculated and commented on, with the aim of discovering which inputs
weight heavier on the results of the model and thus need to be thoroughly refined. Finally, the
insights of the sensitivity analysis are used in order to model four forecasting scenarios: a
possible reduction of the speed limit of the Boulevard Périphérique, the effects of a fare-free
public transit inside Île-de-France, a tightening of the parking space availability inside Paris
and the effects of a “rebalance” of the employment positions between the east and the west of
Île-de-France. |
el |