Epidemionics: From the host-host interactions to the systematic analysis of the emergent macroscopic dynamics of epidemic networks

Reppas, AI; Spiliotis, KG; Siettos, CI

dc.contributor.author	Reppas, AI	en
dc.contributor.author	Spiliotis, KG	en
dc.contributor.author	Siettos, CI	en
dc.date.accessioned	2014-03-01T11:45:08Z
dc.date.available	2014-03-01T11:45:08Z
dc.date.issued	2010	en
dc.identifier.issn	2150-5594	en
dc.identifier.uri	https://dspace.lib.ntua.gr/xmlui/handle/123456789/37238
dc.relation.uri	http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-77954999441&partnerID=40&md5=736955fc31e959415d43ad4f20577cd0	en
dc.subject	Bifurcation analysis	en
dc.subject	Epidemic dynamics	en
dc.subject	Individual-based models	en
dc.subject	Multi-scale analysis	en
dc.subject	Networks	en
dc.subject	Non-linear dynamics	en
dc.subject	Strochastic simulators	en
dc.subject.other	epidemic	en
dc.subject.other	host parasite interaction	en
dc.subject.other	hysteresis	en
dc.subject.other	population	en
dc.subject.other	review	en
dc.subject.other	simulation	en
dc.subject.other	stochastic model	en
dc.subject.other	Communicable Diseases	en
dc.subject.other	Computer Simulation	en
dc.subject.other	Disease Outbreaks	en
dc.subject.other	Epidemics	en
dc.subject.other	Humans	en
dc.subject.other	Models, Biological	en
dc.subject.other	Population Dynamics	en
dc.title	Epidemionics: From the host-host interactions to the systematic analysis of the emergent macroscopic dynamics of epidemic networks	en
heal.type	other	en
heal.language	English	en
heal.publicationDate	2010	en
heal.abstract	One of the most critical issues in epidemiology revolves around the bridging of the diverse space and time scales stretching from the microscopic scale, where detailed knowledge on the immune mechanisms, host-microbe and host-host interactions is often available, to the macroscopic populationscale where the epidemic emerges. Many questions arise and answers are required. In this paper we show how the so called Equation-Free approach, a novel computational framework for multi-scale analysis, can be exploited to efficiently analyze the macroscopic emergent behavior of complex epidemic models on certain types of networks by acting directly on the multi-scale simulation. The methodology can be used to bypass the need for derivation of closures for the emergent population-level equations by providing a systematic computational strict approach for macroscopic-level analysis. We illustrate the methodology through a stochastic individualbased model with agents acting on two different networks: a random regular and an Erdos-Rényi network. We construct the macroscopic bifurcation diagrams and locate the critical points that mark the onset of emergent hysteresis behavior which are associated with disease outbreaks. Finally, we perform a rare-events analysis that may in principle be used to estimate the mean time of possible outbreaks of phenomenologically latent infectious diseases. © 2010 Landes Bioscience.	en
heal.publisher	LANDES BIOSCIENCE	en
heal.journalName	Virulence	en
dc.identifier.isi	ISI:000292520600023	en
dc.identifier.volume	1	en
dc.identifier.issue	4	en
dc.identifier.spage	338	en
dc.identifier.epage	349	en